Topic · 4 briefings
All verified GRRI analysis filed under El Niño.
Week ending 2 October 2026. A forecast strong El Niño reaches the Amazon dry-season end as Kenya’s maize falls about 22–28 percent below average, green-claims laws begin to apply and Colombia’s main avocado harvest approaches. Q4 2026; 89 days to the EUDR clock for large and medium operators, with no further amendment to the text proposed.
The 2026 traviesa harvest fell roughly 50–60 percent after rain-disrupted flowering and heat, and El Niño now threatens the November–March main crop. Bogotá has answered with loan rescheduling and water-infrastructure credit; Dutch buyers are specifying indicators. Q3 2026; 92 days to the EUDR clock for large and medium operators, which does not cover avocados.
VnExpress and USDA put El Niño and below-normal early-2026 rainfall on Vietnam’s coffee belt. Irrigation that lifts yield can drain groundwater. FAO WaPOR drought monitoring is useful public infrastructure — stewardship is whether plot water files stay with growers before EUDR and offtake capture the climate narrative.
Proarándanos cut the 2026/27 blueberry export curve to roughly 382,000 tonnes as El Niño hit mid- and late-season productivity. ProHass reports heat-driven size loss and fruit drop on Hass avocado in the same climate year. Stewardship is whether irrigation, plot and quality files stay with Peruvian producers — or travel only as offtaker assurance.